DailyJuly 31, 2008 6:21 pm
too busy to blog today … LAN documents to be completed. Tired …
Is KLSE as tired as i m? Hmm …
If u r tired, u may sleep like my baby gal ~ Sherlyn. Hehe
TEH
TradingJuly 30, 2008 10:34 am
Trading Mistakes By Nick Proffitt
Just about everyone knows the grisly statistics about options trading: 90% of all naked option players (no, that doesn’t mean they trade in the buff, only that they buy uncovered puts or calls) end up losing money. But hardly anyone knows the equally grisly statistics about equity trading: 80% of all stock investors end up losing money.
But how can that be, you ask? Over time, the stock market is a sure thing, a guaranteed way to make money. It’s so easy. All you have to do is buy good stocks and hold them. Everybody says this, pundits, brokers, financial advisors, the media, the historical record itself. No one who simply bought and held the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the S&P 500 has ever lost money over a 20-year time span. Right? Yes, right. Now go find me someone who bought and held for 20-years. You should be able to find a few, about 20% to be precise. The other 80% lose money.
How does this happen? A couple of ways. Primarily, it happens because no matter how resolute people think they are about buying and holding, they usually fall into the same old emotional pattern of buying high and selling low. Investors are human beings. Human beings naturally want to be in the winning camp, and human beings naturally seek to avoid pain. When things are most euphoric in the investment world, at the top of a long bull market, these human beings are in there buying. And when things are most painful, at the end of bear market, these human beings are in there selling. In fact, it’s usually the final capitulation of the last remaining "holders" that sets up the end of the bear market and the start of a new bull market. As Sy Harding says in his excellent book "Riding The Bear," while people may promise themselves at the top of bull markets that this time they’ll behave differently, "no such creature as a buy and hold investor ever emerged from the other side of the subsequent bear market." Statistics compiled by Ned Davis Research back up Harding’s assertion. Every time the market declines more than 10% (and "real" bear markets don’t even officially begin until the decline is 20%), mutual funds experience net outflows of investor money. Fear is a stronger emotion than greed. Most bear markets last for months (the norm), or even years (both the 1929 and 1966 bear markets), and one can see how the torture of losing money week after week, month after month, would wear down even the most determined buy and holder. But the average investor’s pain threshold is a lot lower than that. The research shows that It doesn’t matter if the bear market lasts less than 3 months (like the 1990 bear) or less than 3 days (like the 1987 bear). People will still sell out, usually at the very bottom, and almost always at a loss.
So THAT is how it happens. And the only way to avoid it is to avoid owning stocks during bear markets. If you try to ride them out, odds are you’ll fail. And if you believe that we are in a New Era, and that bear markets are a thing of the past, your next of kin will have my sympathies.
But people lose money in other ways, too, even during the strongest of bull markets. Let’s look at some of the more common trading mistakes to which people are prone. Many of them are related, part and parcel of the same refusal to pay proper attention to risk management. If you recognize your own actions in some of these, join the club. Over the years, I’ve committed every sin on the list at least once. Still do on occasion.
Letting small losses turn into large losses
A whole myriad of mistakes accompany this one. Refusing to take a loss at all. Overbetting. Catching falling knives. Averaging down. Etc., etc.. At root, it’s probably because the average investor pays little mind to risk management. In a way, it’s understandable. The majority of those in the market today have only come into the market during the last 5 to 7 years. They have never really experienced a serious bear market. The only investing world they know is that of an ongoing bull market, where it’s ALWAYS okay to buy the dips, where a stock that craters ALWAYS comes back. But SOMEBODY bought UBid at 121. And SOMEBODY bought eBay at 234. I hope it wasn’t you. You should only be buying stocks that are in an ongoing uptrend (hopefully not TOO far along however), or those that are bottoming out following a stiff correction. In other words, when you buy a stock it should be with the expectation that it will go up (otherwise, why buy it?). If it goes down instead, you’ve made a mistake in your analysis. Either you’re early, or just plain wrong. It amounts to the same thing. There is no shame in being wrong, only in STAYING wrong. If a stock does not quickly begin to move in the direction you envisioned when you purchased it, you should begin to question your reasons for owning it and you should immediately put it on a short leash. If it doesn’t turn in relatively quick fashion, get rid of it. You can always go back in later, when it really turns. This goes to the heart of the familiar adage: let winners run, cut losers short. Nothing will eat into your performance more than carrying a bunch of dogs and their attendant fleas, both in terms of actual losses and in terms of dead, or underperforming, money.
Refusing to take a loss at all
I simply don’t understand the way some people think. From whence came the idiotic notion that a loss "on paper" isn’t a "real" loss until you actually sell the stock? Or that a profit isn’t a profit until the stock is sold and the money is in the bank? Nonsense. Your stock and your portfolio is worth whatever you can sell it for, at the market, right at this moment. No more. No less. People are reluctant to sell a loser for a variety of reasons. For some it’s an ego/pride thing, an inability to admit they’ve made a mistake. That is false pride, and it’s faulty thinking. Your refusal to acknowledge a loss doesn’t make it any less real. Hoping and waiting for a loser to come back and save your fragile pride is dumb. Your loser may NOT come back. And even if it does, a stock that is down 50% has to put up a 100% gain just to get back to breakeven. Losses are a cost of doing business, a part of the game. If you never have losses, then you are not trading properly. Most pros have three losers for every winner. They make money by keeping the losses small and letting the profits build. You should be almost happy to take a loss. It means that you have jettisoned an underachiever stock and have freed up that dead money to put to better use elsewhere. Take your losses ruthlessly, put them out of mind and don’t look back, and turn your attention to your next trade.
Overbetting
This gets into the realm of money management. Diversification, the process of spreading your investment capital around in different assets and sectors to feather the vagaries of the market, has gotten a bit of a bum rap lately. Some of the New Paradigm folks think the concept is "old fashioned." These tend to be the same people who have every last dime in a handful of internet stocks. That’s not investing, or even trading. It’s gambling. Preservation of capital is paramount. If you run out of chips, game over man. You may feel a bit envious the day your neighbor, who has put everything he owns into Zowie.com parks his new Mercedes in the driveway next door, but you’ll feel a lot better the day the repo man comes with the tow truck to take it back. Most professionals will allocate no more than 2-5% of their total investment capital to any one position. Ten percent should be your absolute max. One more thing. I’ve checked the U.S. Constitution and the Bill of Rights, and nowhere in either of them does it say that you have to have ALL of your money in the stock market ALL of the time. Money management also pertains to your total investment posture. Even when your analysis is overwhelmingly bullish, it never hurts to have at least some cash on hand, earning its 5% in the money market. You’ll need it when you see that next "can’t miss" stock but don’t want to sell any of your other "can’t miss" stocks to raise the money to buy it. Your exposure should be consistent with your overall market analysis. As the market becomes more overbought, overextended, and overvalued, your cash level should rise accordingly. Then as the market gets more oversold and undervalued, you can raise your market exposure accordingly. Being ALL in the market or ALL out of the market sounds like a good idea, and it may work out wonderfully on paper, but it rarely plays out so smoothly in real life and real investing. But you should still employ a sliding scale of exposure, based on your market analysis.
Bottom fishing/Catching falling knives
Many of the daily e-mails I get are of the following type: "Nick, Zowie.com is down 23 points today. Time to buy?!!!" My answer is almost always the same. "Put your pants on, Spartacus. No!" Don’t ANTICIPATE bottoms. It’s tempting to try to pinpoint an exact low, especially if you’re working with indictors like Fibonacci fan and time lines, cycle studies, regression channels, even plain old lateral support points. But it’s almost always better to let the stock find its bottom on it’s own, and then start to nibble. Just because a stock is down big doesn’t mean it can’t go down even bigger. In fact, a major multipoint drop is often just the beginning of a larger decline. It’s always satisfying to catch an exact low tick, but when it happens it’s usually by accident. Let stocks and markets bottom and top on their own and limit your efforts to recognizing the fact "soon enough." Nobody, and I mean nobody, can consistently nail the bottom tick or top tick. Those who try usually get burned.
Averaging down
Don’t do it. For one thing, you shouldn’t even have the opportunity, because you should have sold that dog before it got to the level where averaging down is tempting. The pros average UP, not down; they got to be pros because they added to winners, not losers. And speaking of averaging UP, there’s a right way to do it. And doubling your position is not it. Rather, you should add 1/2 your original stake. If other words, if you already own 100 shares and want to bolster your position, you buy 50 shares. If you later decide to add more, you add 25 shares, etc. Why you should do it this way is too long to go into here, but that’s the way the math works out best for you.
Shorting bulls and buying bears
Yes, there are stocks that will go up in bear markets and stocks that will go down in bull markets, but it’s usually not worth the effort to hunt for them. The vast majority of stocks, some 80+%, will go with the market flow. And so should you. It doesn’t make sense to counter trade the prevailing market trend. If you’re worried about a short term pullback, simply cut back on your trading, take a few profits, and build up your stash of cash. Let that money earn its 5% in the money market until the squall has passed.
Confusing the company with its stock
There are some fine companies with mediocre stocks, and some mediocre companies with fine stocks. Try not to confuse the two. This is, at heart, a fundamental analysis versus technical analysis issue. Some stocks simply have excellent trading characteristics while others don’t. Maybe it’s a matter of liquidity, or a fanatical message board following, or a daytrading clientele, or whatever. Take Amazon.com for example. Is the company a good one? Who knows? Not me. But the stock is. I wouldn’t want to have to hold it for 20 years, but I sure don’t mind trading it a few days at a time, the "right" days. That sucker moves. Baby Bells are at the other end of the spectrum. Fine companies for the most part. Wouldn’t mind owning one for 20 years. But you have to pick your spots when you go to trade them, because a measly 3 point move in a single session is huge for a Baby Bell. Also remember this: even the stock of a great company can go through a bad patch. IBM is a great company today, with its stock selling at 124, and it was a great company five years ago, when its stock was selling at 13.
Falling in love with a "story"
This is related to confusing the company with its stock. There are a lot of intriguing "stories" out there, but they don’t always translate into instant riches. Iomega was such a "story" stock. The story was that the company’s Zip drive was going to replace the floppy in the world’s computers. The stock ran straight up to the sky to wait for the story to come true. And for the most part, IOM’s story DID come true (many stories don’t, witness the Y2K stocks), but the stock gave back most of its gains anyway. Turns out it wasn’t that much of a story after all. In other cases, the story comes true but the stock you’ve bet on isn’t the story teller. Witness the laser vision "story." A number of companies were hyped as the category killer, but only one, VISX, made its stockholders real money. And how about satellite communications? Great story, eh? Tell it to those who loaded up on Iridium’s stock.
Following the leader
Just as money tends to flow into last year’s top mutual fund (sure to be next year’s underachiever), people tend to chase the high flying momentum MO-MO stocks, succumbing to the buzz and getting in AFTER the stock has already jumped 80% and inevitably just before it drops 60% as the early buyers take their profits by selling their shares to the "greater fool," you. Yes, you can make a quick buck chasing momentum, but you can lose it even quicker. You can never be sure there’s a greater fool coming in after you, and that could make you the "greatest fool."
Buying IPOs
An astonishing number of people don’t understand how IPOs work. YOU are not really buying an IPO when you buy the stock on the first day of public trading when it opens at $75. Those who REALLY bought the IPO were those who got their shares for $10, well before the public trading began. For the most part, only institutions or megamillionaire private investors have access to IPOs. There have been a few exceptions, but it’s almost universally dumb to buy a hot IPO on its first day of public trading. As for those few times when the average investor IS offered shares in an IPO before public trading begins, my advice is to pass. My rule of thumb on IPOs is: If you want it, you can’t get it, and if you can get it, you don’t want it.
Finding the Holy Grail
Technicians regularly fall into periods where they tend to favor one or two indicators over all others. No harm in that, so long as the favored indicators are working, and keep on working. But the analyst should always be aware of the fact that as market conditions change, so will the efficacy of their indicators. Indicators that work in one type of market may lead you badly astray in another. You have to be aware of what’s working now and what’s not, and be ready to shift when conditions shift. There is no Holy Grail indicator that works all the time and in all markets. If you think you’ve found it, get ready to lose money. Instead, take your trading signals from the "accumulation of evidence" among ALL of your indicators, not just one.
Overtrading
The Picks Port commits this sin on a regular basis, but that’s mostly because of the nature of the beast. I have to be more short term oriented than I’d prefer to be because you, my subscribers, tend to be more short term oriented than you probably should be. Daytrading, of course, is the epitome of overtrading. Most people just are not equipped, emotionally, intellectually, or mechanically, to day trade and statistics tell us that most are not successful at it. If you are not making money at daytrading but keep on doing it anyway, you should examine your motives. If it’s the action you crave, take up skydiving. It’s safer and cheaper.
Excessive tape watching
I get a kick out of people who insist that they’re intermediate or long term investors, buy a stock, then anxiously ask whether they should bail the first time the stocks drops a point or two. Likely as not, the panic was induced by watching the tape, or hearing some talking head on CNBC. Watching the ticker can be fun. It can be mesmerizing. But it can also be dangerous. It leads to emotionalism and to hasty decisions. Try not to make trading decisions when the market is in session. Do your analysis and make your plan when the market is closed and the White Noise of the television and the ticker is absent, then calmly execute your plan the following day. You have your stop and your target. So go take a nap, or go to the movies, or mow the lawn. The only time you should be scrutinizing the tape is when you’re looking for an immediate entry or exit point for a trade. Otherwise, do your blood pressure a favor and tune out.
Being undercapitalized
If you have less than $50,000 to invest, you’d probably be better off in a mutual fund rather than trading individual stocks. To get proper diversification with a fully invested exposure you need at least 10 stocks. You do the math.
Letting the tax tail wag the stock dog
Don’t let tax considerations dictate your decision on whether to sell a stock. Pay capital gains tax willingly, even joyfully. The only way to avoid paying taxes on a stock trade is to not make any money on the trade.
Relying on gurus
I’m spitting in my own rice bowl here, but you should not be letting some self-appointed market "gooroo" dictate or dominate your trading decisions. The most you should expect, or accept, from folks like me are a few trading ideas, a little technical analysis tutoring, and a bit of guidance in maintaining a solid trading discipline. You should not think of a market letter (ANY market letter) as a substitute for a personally managed portfolio. No one knows or cares about your personal circumstances like you do; how much money you have to invest, your tolerance for pain, your goals, your most suitable and comfortable time frame, etc. And you should be doing everything in your power to make Nick’s Picks unnecessary and irrelevant to your trading, to learn enough not to need the likes of me anymore. Read some books. Take some courses. Buy some decent charting software and arrange for a data feed.
Thinking this market stuff is easy
Don’t confuse genius with a bull market. It’s not that hard make money in a roaring bull market. Keeping your gains when the bear comes prowling is the hard part. Don’t get cocky, but don’t grovel either. You’re not as smart as you think you are when everything is going great. But you’re not as dumb as you think you are when everything is going to hell either. The market whips all our butts now and then. The whipping usually comes just when we think we’ve got it all figured out.
Thinking rather than looking
One thing you should be thankful for is that you don’t HAVE to come up with a reason for WHY the market is doing what it’s doing. The talking heads on CNBC do because that’s their job. I do too, because I know you expect it of me. But you don’t. Just follow your chart work and let someone else do the pontificating. After all, who REALLY knows why stock ABC goes up 5 points on Monday while stock XYZ, in the same business, goes down 5 points? That’s the great thing about technical analysis. You don’t have to know. The price action is THE TRUTH. It’s all you really need to know. Price doesn’t lie. Price doesn’t alibi. Price never complains and never explains. It is what it is. When XYZ goes up $5 on heavy volume, let Joe Hairdo on CNBC jabber on about what it all means. We KNOW what it means. It means XYZ went up $5 on heavy volume.
Pant…pant…pant
These are just some of the mistakes traders make. There are lots more, but this has to end somewhere. These have been mostly generic in nature, applicable to fundamental investors as well as technical traders. One of these days I’ll do another diatribe along these same lines, but confine it strictly to TA do’s and don’ts. Until then, trade smart.
morning … "it is not when or what you buy, but when you sell that matters". I read this quotation in one of the trading book …
So, needing to time the exit point for SCOMI at the moment is crucial since i have acheived my target price. It formed a doji-star yesterday and a flag a day before … showing that there is a possibilities that it will be RED ALERT today … but due to DJIA up 200+ points last night, there is a likelihood that KLSE will follow through …
Price at 0.71 at the moment … it needs to break 0.78 to trigger any immediate up-trend. If my prediction that it will move UP this morning later … and to sell at 0.75, then we shall see if it could break the resistance of 0.78. Once it breakout of 0.78, i can accumulate AGAIN before it reaches the next resistance level(which i need to re-examine at the charts). Support is at 0.64 at the moment.
That is TA … simplified. It is very technical … just like BOWLING!! Not only throw the ball, and HOPE it will hit the head-pin and once in a while, u get a strike!! We are talking about PROBABILITIES at play here : BOWLING <—-> TRADING.
9.50am
Good guess … hehe … the KLCI is green as DJIA was up. With further retrace of crude oil price (US123 now), we could expect more uptrend, for a time being. Of coz, we need to take into consideration of our clowns in parliment. Someone might claim being molested!!
1pm
Scomi closed at 0.715 at lunch hour …
morning … time to time the exit point …
Trading
The serious message is when the crowd is against you, you can either follow them (trend trading) or go against them (contrarian investor). The important is not to run behind the crowd (i.e. you are the last person to follow the trend) or get trampled (catching a failling knife). Theory is easy. Practice is hard. You just got to practice practice practice until you get it right!
http://tradingbursamalaysia.blogspot.com/
2.15pm
There is a high level management meeting between the school governors with INTI’s Mr Wong. A possibilties of merger inti-sinaran? Then, will Mr Wong being my boss again? Hmm … for us teachers, we are just ku-lei. So, we follow the crowd without much choices, anyway. Perhaps those in retiring age(unfortunately, i m not) can consider to retire soon … not to add in the stress lines.
Me? I wish to LEARN to TRADE … and then,i will only teach part-time or tuition … at the moment, i m still financially very tight. Perhaps, i need to get a cap-kai once they shifted to Menggatal. Crude oil price is easing but i believe we will experince another round of price increase … perhaps, ka-cai will be too costly too? How about cycling? Hmm …
TEH
monday morning … i m off today. Our school having a day off after everyone busy yesterday during the open day.
i m here to check of Ranhill(1.40) and Scomi(0.695) — which still moving up and planning my selling for profit soon. Next, to buy another babe in a larger amount SOON … that will be my trade for this week.
2pm : My baby gal named Sherlyn Teh Yan Herr. We thought that Charlene is a little ‘luo-tuo’ … hehe … Anyway, done with her birth cert … and here to see KLCI flying today … my guess on SAT is right? Will need time to locate my new positions … i m more confident now after diligently following the roller-coaster ride of KLSE for past 7 months now!!
Well, i will created a trading blog once i could get the energy going …
have a nice day
TEH
p/s: thanks, orange. 
TEH
11am — open day in school. The opening ceremony? The ice melt and collapsed. I closed my eyes!
Tired … waiting for closing ceremony while reading DATA DATA DATA … Tebrau is taking a U-turn … but i didnt look into this ‘hot’ stock as its PE value so high and so much depending on Iskandar Corridor Project in Johore. I think i m a FA first when i look into a babe. The guru Adam Khoo said dont look into counters with PE > 15. (Scomi trading with PE < 3 now. Ranhill’s PE < 7 … ) … once some of the ratios satisfied, i will look into its price and the graph … then, started to look into DATA(such as history prices, its previous high/low … treds ..) … graphs(candle stick preferred) …
It is hard-work … and to stalk about 20 babes, u really hv a lot of homework to do …
Too many babes i hv stalked(and replaced) … look into strong counters that are having huge discount at the moment … Genting and Resorts are two of many favourites … so, if u are placing your money in FD, well … i shall say that it is better to park your money in these stocks. No one can tell you how low is low, but it is cheap at the moment. Hold it for 5 yrs and you will know what i mean.
off …
TEH
morning … today is Sat but is a very busy day in our school as we are preparing for tmr’s OPEN DAY.
I m one of the judges for the Environmental Board Games — many creative and interesting games done by the students from other schools. Will post pictures next week … i have 8 more games to ‘judge’. Hey, of coz i m NOT qualify to judge … as i hv not much of experience in board(or is it bored?) games. I hv NOT been around for the whole week — in and out of hospitals — Likas — QEH and Luyang clinic. My poor baby gal needed an plaster shoe to straighten her feet. Of coz i m worried, tho i do not show it to my wife(not to add to her worries … i need to be strong for her). We need to massage her feet with lotion every two hours for few weeks and hope she will be fine.
Tading : Sorry Mike … i m too new to stock markets to give you any comment. Besides, i dont believe in listening to others but to do my own homework.
As far as i have read, MKLand is losing-money company … too risky as many speculators. For that reason(s), i do not look into MKLand. Every traders/investors have their OWN criterion. High DY? High EPS? Low PE? Higher than NTA? Fundamental vs Technical? Rumours? News? Economics vs Financial? Sector play? Swing trading? Double-top? H n S? Long term vs Short term? Indicators? MACD? Elliott waves? etc etc ?? I m confused! Haha
Personally, i will NOT look into MKLand at all at the moment. Reasons : 1. tiny penny stock(higher risk) 2. property sector downtrend 3. no strong fundamental 4. Foreign funds throw away their stake 5. dont like the management and its link with Gov.
Ok, that is the best i could put it for MKLand …
2.45pm
I m in still in school … tired. Waiting for my students to finish the ‘effects’ for the opening ceremony tmr morning!!
here is my GUESS for monday morning KLCI … GREEN and UPWARD. BULL to win on the day.
Reasonings :
1. Interest rate maintained(but for how long? Inflation in Aug is expected to be higher)
2. Dow Up yesterday … that is good news.
3. Oil to retrace further but how much is eceryone guess
4. No politicians sodomising their male sek-atari recently(reported cases) — so, no political factor there at the moment
5. Mini rally … pre-budget? End of AUG …
6. The SUN and the STARs are very bright … need to check on tonight’s moon illuminations.
Enough …
good weekend ahead
TEH
morning … the bull is tired. It need to rest and everyone waiting for the announcement from BNM regarding the interest hike. I dont really understand HOW by increasing the rate could help to reduce the inflation(7.7% in june — highest in 26 yrs history!). That is ECONOMY … and i didnt read much of economy books, just financial/investing related books/articles.
So, today is another d-day for KLCI … anticipating ‘bad’ news and KLCI could retrace further … closed at 1141.59 yesterday.
this week i m learning to look into warrants … different types of warrants and the expiry dates. i m currently 7 months old in trading … loooong way to go …
open day this sunday but i m more concern about my baby gal … obviously. So, i m sort of too busy to blog. Mind not in a piece, i mean in peace.
Ranhill still zooooming up … WOW!
TEH
morning … yesterday was a hectic day - Mag discharged from hospital Likas last night. It was the first night my baby girl is back to ‘new’ home. Er was ‘unhappy’ as he wants attention from mommy but Mag needs to breast-feed baby. My head was banging, could not sleep well.
Trading : My babes : Ranhill(10 lots), Jaks(30 lots), LionDiv(20 lots) and Scomi(105 lots). Need to hold indefinitely … one fine day, the sun will rise and my babes will be shown their beauty again.
My ex-babes : Astro(+8%), GPlus(-8%), Kinstel(+12%).
Interested in : Hsplant, Zelan, IGB and MPHB. <— next buy in Sept/Oct?
KLCI stages strong rebound — THE STAR
PETALING JAYA: The stock market rebounded strongly yesterday with the KL Composite Index (KLCI) surging close to 30 points to 1,139, its highest single-day gain since March. A total of 656.4 million shares changed hands, valued at some RM1.2bil.
Regional bourses also staged a healthy rebound with gains mainly driven by the fall in the price of crude oil on Tuesday. At press time yesterday, crude oil prices were still declining.
Yesterday, Singapore’s Straits Times Index jumped 3%, the Kospi Index rose almost 2%, the Hang Seng Index gained 2.7% while the Nikkei 225 improved nearly 1%.
While it remains to be seen if crude oil prices are on a downward trend, the fall is definitely a relief for investors, as there should less inflationary pressures.
For the past 12 months, the price of crude oil has surged relentlessly, leading to secondary pressure on prices of goods. Coupled with the higher prices of food resources and commodities, the inflation rate in most countries is at a peak.
The cost-push inflation is threatening global economic growth as consumers find it difficult to adjust to the rising prices.
While central banks have resolved to raise interest rates to curb demand and prevent further pressure on prices, most have held back on fears that tightening monetary policy could crimp growth.
A head of research at a local brokerage noted yesterday that the buying interest was mostly by local funds, who were accumulating heavyweight shares like British American Tobacco (M) Bhd, Bumiputra-Commerce Holdings Bhd, Tanjong plc and Bursa Malaysia Bhd, which gained 50 sen each.
AirAsia Bhd was the most actively traded, gaining 12.5 sen to RM1.04 on expectation the budget airline’s prospects would be less risky with lower fuel prices.
“It’s certainly a relief that crude oil has come off its high although no one can be certain that it is finally going for a correction,” the head of research said.
The brokerage expects crude oil prices to average US$115 per barrel this year owing to a slowdown in the United States and weaker global demand.
The central bank released the consumer price index for June yesterday, which saw a 7.7% year-on-year rise. This was higher than the earlier estimate of 6%.
The head of research said the higher-than-expected inflation rate would have a bearing on the market.
“This will heighten the expectation of a interest rate hike when Bank Negara meets on Friday (tomorrow),” he said, adding that July’s inflation rate might be higher than that of June to account for the electricity rate increase.
“The impact of the electricity, however, is not broad-based and therefore would not drive up inflation significantly,” he added.
i m too busy to blog …
1.30pm : My baby girl wearing a new plastic shoe … will be for two weeks.
Scomi at 0.68 … market is slowing and just another technical rebounds? Zoooming down again? I dont know …
TEH
DailyJuly 23, 2008 7:42 am
morning … my baby gal was born last night 8.15pm
10.30am
Trading : Market rebounds … CPO trading at US127 yesterday … and may further down. I dont know … still waiting for?? But, i believe it is temporary and KLCI will retrace further. We shall see …
6.30pm Putatan
having my dinner … just finished a class at INTI. Going to fetch my wife and baby back home later. Excited. Hehe. KLCI up 30 points and i bought scomi. It might rebound temporary, so i will sell it off once i reach the TP of .715. Exit point at 0.615. Will it rebounds further up? We shall watch the KLCI show …
TEH
morning … Mag is in Likas Hospital since last night 9pm … well, she is expecting anytime today soon … and i m nervous. Hmm … will go off after my classes later …
There are late rebounds yesterday with KLCI recovered from the steep drop in in the morning … so, what will the story today, besides my wife giving birth to my gal? hehe
KLSE rebounds a little this morning but with many political issues hovering in the air, one need to be very cautious. Many bargain hunting at the moment with Genting is very actively traded. Genting @ 5.35 now
Scomi …where is the bottom?
O & G sector : OSK recommends Dialog and Kencana. Ramunia (in news - MISC) and KNM too are two hot babes.
Rubber : Kossan, Supermx and Topglove — The Edge
Gamuda : Privatisation possibilities — moving up with heavy trade since yesterday
Plantation :
TEH
morning … market is opening … what is the story this morning?
http://www.samgang.blogspot.com/ <— FA guru?
FA vs TA
My cousin bro, WAI is more of FA .. looking into the strength of companies with good earning(high EPS), also low PE … perhaps stocks below its NTA value. Those are accounting ratios. It is tiring to look into many companies’s AR but it is worth(and necessary for FA) if u could feel more confident with the company(afterall, stocks of the comapny is buyinginto its business!).
I m learning TA … looking into charts, graphs … support/resistance level, break-out points, price-volume correlations, and such. I dont know much about MACD, Stochastics just yet … and many more indicators. Hmm … i will diligently learn …
Plantation counters taking hard beatings at the moment, especially the larger cap counters. mid-cap like HSPlant feeling the heat, and moving down to 2.77. SHOULD I BUY NOW? Beeepp … looking into stars again ….
TEH
morning … i m here just for a while to check the market as it continues to drop. Plantation babes are badly hurt.
http://www.leon-tan.blogspot.com/ <— these are real traders. Interesting to know them. And i m on learning ground, indirectly. Exposure will do me good. Currently i m too busy to analyse any charts but the bottoming of KLCI is attracting me to observe it daily.
Morning … will be another busy day …
2.15pm … the line is really bad, i couldnt get thru 
last night we played badly, way below our averages and lost to Jeff’s team(Sabah back-up bowlers) … we dropped to no 3. Will write more about it as i need to check on KLSE at the moment. Plantation counters taking the battering at the moment. More buying opportunities … hmmm ….
It exists to serve and not to instruct, it will not tell you whether you are right or not
The rippling effect of the US subprime issue, coupled with the fear of high oil prices and political uncertainties have sent a lot of stocks tumbling to very low levels recently.
At the start of this year, when the market was touching a new high of 1,500 points, some fund managers predicted the market might go even higher.
However, following the recent market crashes, the KL Composite Index fell to about 1,150 points, a drop of 350 points within six months. Now, certain fund managers have started to predict the market dropping below 1,000points in the near future.
Most retailers cannot comprehend how fund managers can change their market forecast by 500 points within a six-month period. The main reason for this is the change in market perception.
Due to the impact of the issues mentioned above and the tumbling stock prices, the fear of weak corporate performance has caused some company owners’ to hold back on expansion programmes. This has resulted in weaker corporate results and panic selling on the stock.
According to George Soros, this phenomenon can be explained by the “reflexive process”, - the feedback loop where a change in stock prices causes a change in company fundamentals, which, in turn, justifies a further drop in stock prices.
He said perceptions change facts; and facts change perceptions. Hence, the drop in stock prices can cause further drop in the company’s stock prices.
According to Phillip Fisher, market prices are determined more by perceptions than facts. Besides, analysts like to place more weight on the short-term performance of a company rather than focus on its long-term prospects.
As a result, when the overall market is coming down, analysts like to lower the target-selling price of a company and increase the target-selling price when the overall market is trending higher.
Risk means uncertainty of outcome. The stock market reacts negatively to risk. Whenever the stock market has a lot of uncertainties, all stocks - regardless of whether they are good or poor fundamental stocks - will be hammered down.
However, we always believe crisis means opportunities. The recent drop in market prices creates magnificent investment opportunities. Even though the market may drop further as there are still a lot of uncertainties and outstanding negative news pending announcement, we believe there is great opportunity for long-term investment.
Warren Buffett believes that the stock market is manic-depressive: it always overreacts to positive as well as negative news. If the overall market sentiment is good, the stock price may surge sky high. However, if the market sentiment is depressive, the stock price may plunge to insanely cheap.
That is why Buffett said: “The market is there to serve you and not to instruct you. It is not telling you whether you are right or wrong. The business results will determine that.”
Hence, the key factor is to purchase the right business at the right.
We believe a lot of investors know which good quality stocks to hold for the long-term. However, they always complain these stocks are too expensive most times. As a result of the recent market crashes, some of these stocks have dropped to quite attractive levels.
Even though they may get even cheaper if the overall market drops further, we need to prepare ourselves by understanding the intrinsic value of the stocks and at what price we will start to accumulate them.
According to Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book entitled The Black Swan, we should stop trying to predict anything and instead take advantage of uncertainty.
A lot of investors or analysts may spend a lot of time trying to predict the market bottom. We should not try to predict when the market will reach its bottom as we will never know until it happens.
The key thing is to focus on is whether we have already identified which good quality stocks to invest in when the market is getting nearer to the bottom. Instead of trying to catch the stock at the lowest point, we hold the principle that we would be happy if we are able to catch those stocks 20% from the low.
take from THE STAR
morning … nothing much to blog as i m busy, nervous and tired.
Tonight got the crucher game … we need to play 200+ average and hope KS’s team play below par. Otherwise, we settle for 2nd position.
Trading : Looking at the REDs, i think KLCI will retrace further … but if i could get Kinstel below 1.15, i will nibble a little. 5000 units? Will call OSK later.
Trading : Kinstel is still steady at 1.20+ level … Kwantas bottoming. ALERT!! Also, scomi is moving sideway … waiting for signals? If Liondiv moving below 1.10, i might consider to accumulate it. With limited ammunitions, i could only buy a little. Most of my $$ stucked inside liao … patience. YAN YAN YAN! Hehe
Sam Lee Sheng Jie - Zui Jing
你最近不说话
怎么了 为什么
是不是有什么事让你不快乐
听说你最近很孤单
有点乱有点慌
可是我却不能够在你的身旁
你想要的我却不能够给你我全部
我能给的却又不是你想要拥有的
我们不适合 也不想认输
好几次我们抱着彼此都是想要哭
你常解释这样的一切都只是开始
我觉得是所有的一切早就已结束
不想再约束 不要再痛苦
下一次会有更好的情路
爱 我却不能够给你我全部
我能给的却又不是你想要拥有的
我们不适合 也不想认输
好几次我们抱着彼此都是想要哭
你常解释这样的一切都只是开始
我觉得是所有的一切早就已结束
不想再约束 不要再痛苦
下一次会有更好的情路
这一次我们都能很幸福
Ni Zui Jing Bu Shuo Hua
Zen Me Le Wei Shen Me
Shi Bu Shi You Shen Me Shi Rang Ni Bu Kuai Le
Ting Shuo Ni Zui Jin Hen Gu Dan
You Dian Luan You Dian Huang
KeShi Wo Que Bu Neng Gou Zai Ni De Sheng Pang
Ni Xiang Yao De Wo Que Bu Neng Gou Gei Ni Wo Quan Bu
Wo Neng Gei De Que Bu Shi Ni Xiang Yong You De
Wo Men Bu Shi He Ye Bu Xiang Ren Shu
Hao Ji Ci Wo Men Bao Zhe Pi Ci Dou Shi Xiang Yao Ku
Ni Chang Jie Shi Zhe Yang De Yi Qie Dou Zhi Shi Kai Shi
Wo Jue De Shi Suo You De Yi Qie Zao Jiu Yi Jie Shu
Bu Xiang Zai Yue Su Bu Yao Zai Tong Ku
Xia Yi Ci Hui You Geng Hao De Qing Lu
Ai Wo Que Bu Neng Gou Gei Ni Wo Quan Bu
Wo Neng Gei De Que You Bu Shi Ni Xiang Yao Yong You De
Wo Men Bu Shi He Ye Bu Xiang Ren Shu
Hao Ji Ci Wo Men Bao Zhe Pi Ci Dou Shi Xiang Yao Ku
Ni Chang Jie Shi Zhe Yang De Yi Qie Dou Zhi Shi Kai Shi
Wo Jue De Shi Suo You De Yi Qie Zao Jiu Yi Jie Shu
Bu Xiang Zai Yue Su Bu Yao Zai Tong Ku
Xia Yi Ci Hui You Geng Hao De Qing Lu
Zhe Yi Ci Wo Men Dou Neng Hen Xing Fu
TEH
My Thoughts, The STARJuly 16, 2008 8:49 am
GEORGE TOWN: Penang Hokkien may become extinct if no effort is made to preserve and encourage the young to speak the dialect.
This is the observation of author Tan Choon Hoe who has written two books Learn to Speak PHD-Penang Hokkien Dialect and Penang Hokkien Dialect (PHD) for Penangites and Tourists to promote the dialect.
Tan, 47, who teaches English and Hokkien here, described the dialect as the essence of George Town and a part of its heritage. He lamented the fact that Chinese children here spoke very little Hokkien nowadays. “Parents would usually speak to their children in English or Mandarin and the only chance for the kids to learn Hokkien is from their grandparents, if they are still around,” Tan added.
He said it was even more important now to preserve the dialect with George Town’s recent listing as a Unesco World Heritage Site.
“Many people here do not know that our native dialect has become a dying heritage,” Tan told a press conference to promote the sale of the books to raise funds for Penang Adventist Hospital’s needy patients. Penang Adventist Hospital community relation coordinator Chin Hsien Hui said the hospital’s nurses, staff and doctors who were non native speakers took Hokkien lessons from Tan in the hospital to enable them to communicate with patients.
“Speaking Hokkien to those who cannot speak English, especially the elderly, makes them feel more comfortable,” she said.
The books can be purchased from the hospital, with 30% of the proceeds going to the hospital’s Dr J Earl Gardner Fund. For details, contact Tan at 012-4820038 or the hospital development department at 04-2227603.
My Thoughts
I m one of the many ‘modern’ new parents who is guilty of not speaking my mother tongue with my son, Er. Not many speak Hokkein in Sabah. Perhaps, i should make an effort to speak more Hokkein with my two kids. The only word he know is "boh" means "dont have".
morning … yet another day to keep myself afloat. Need to key in the marks, do some paper work and off.
merely existing is natural for most of us, actually. We dont hv to take charge, no need to be excited about anything … no need to think what to do, how to do it or dont bother what others are doing!! If u r attending a class, you just sit there, staring blankly at the table and place the book in front of you, as if u r concentrating hard on it. Hmm … then when of sudden you are "awaken" by some distractions, all you do is stare at the it and pretend that you are listening/focusing. Merely existing … a term i used on MYSELF whenever i m not sure what i myself are doing as i m just going thru series of motions without much participations.
Another term can be used is … dis-illusioned. You do something, but u never realised what you are doing is NOT what you want to do as you never think of what you want. So, you just do what others doings, without any thoughts. Interesting …
2pm
Anwar arrested. Turmoil in a making? KLSE bombed? We shall see when market re-opens at 2.30pm later. Kinstel shed 11cents. If one to buy Kinstel, should BUY now, right? But, ask .. why it shed 11cents in ONE MORNING? Hmm …
Lets wait till Anwar and Badawi stories are over … will it ever?
i m still following Gamuda … but due to the three GHOSTS in KLSE, it will takes a loooong time to recovery, if its ever. I dont know when i should dare enough and zoom in. Just wait … for months now … wait
6.30pm
KLCI closed lower by 8 points. I thought it is a free-fall as Anwar arrested? Hmm … some goood buys in sight. I was told to pick 5 counters for shopping. my list is lionind, wct, kwantas, scomi and alam.
I m thinking of Kinstel at the moment … queue for 1.15 tmr?
morning … i m still too nervous. Guess it is natural, i couldnt sleep well. So, i tried to go thru the motion, merely existing. Are you talking to me? Sorry, i m not home …
AIRASIA
I m glad that i hv ‘found’ a few online traders here … and managed to hv short chat with them Tho i couldnt understand their technical language just yet, i will learn … looong way to go, man. Besides, thru them … i hv many links that i could get thru to learn more of the TA. Slowly, i will create my own trading weblog, and observe my own picks. It is really not easy to learn, honestly. Or perhaps i m not as smart enough?
TEH
morning … i walked to school today and was here before 7am. Thought they are having SC meeting?
Anyway, days becoming busier and i m becoming more restless. I could only wait … and waiting could add to my nervousness.
Will be busy in office today …
2pm : The no confidence motion by the oppositions thrown out of the Parliment window, and they walked out of Parliment. Sigh. Enough of dramas in our political scene. They are making themselves look foolish. And most traders/investors keep their money close to their chest(in their cocoon).
I dont understand WHY those MPs are still FIGHTING(instead of working!!) since Mar 8th. POWER STRUGGLE between themselves … within the same party too. ALL THESE ARE MAKING HEADLINES INSTEAD OF DO THE NECESSARY WORKS. SO, TO ALL THE SHIT MPs WHO MAKAN GAJI BUTA, listen here … start working. Dont pretend and running away from your responsibilities. Your are an MP, for f**king sake, ACT like one. Damn. I m cursing our so-called LEADERS. Too many shit-heads in Parliment … all with their OWN personal agenda up their sleeves. SELFISH MPs, sitting their — being paid — and much under table given to them. What else do they want??
If i m going to elaborate on their works as MP, i will continue to curse their "luck" for being picked as our MPs. Many are a real SHIT! I m embarassed being a Malaysian, and mind you, i hv always been proud of being Malaysian. Not anymore …
To those MPs who are still fighting/accusing, go and eat SHIT. Sorry, i think you all cant understand simple English — kepada MP semua yang masih bertelagah and tidak bekerja sebagaimana yang sepatutnya, pergi makan TAHI. Pergi MAMPUS lagi baik la. Rosak maruah negara kita. MALU.
Phew …. nice to vent out some anger i hv stored, seeing the immaturity of our MPs. Hehe
TEH
